🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.